Spain dominates with 66% possession and 10 shots on goal while Argentina plays extra time with ten men after Enzo Fernández's red card.
Final AI forecast archive : Spain versus Argentina
Advancement probability
AI Forecast Chat
Every probability change is paired with the model's persisted English explanation.
Scoreless deep into extra time with Spain dominating (15-0 shots, xG 1.12-0) against ten-man Argentina, but a penalty shootout is now highly likely, tempering Spain's edge.
Spain dominates possession and shots while Argentina is reduced to ten men after a red card, heavily tilting advancement probability.
With the match at 135 minutes and tied 0-0, a penalty shootout is imminent where probabilities are nearly even despite Spain's statistical dominance and Argentina's red card.
Spain have dominated 10-0 in shots on target and face ten-man Argentina, but the 0-0 score deep in extra time leaves a substantial shootout chance.
0-0 at 135' ET end with Argentina down a man after Enzo red; Spain dominate shots/xG/possession but shootout looms as equalizer.
Spain has dominated with 10 shots on target and 66% possession against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernandez sent off), but with only 5 minutes of extra time remaining and no goal scored, penalties remain likely despite Spain's advantage.
Spain dominate with 15 shots and 1.2 xG to Argentina's zero while Argentina start extra time with 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow at 90+3'.
Spain dominates possession (66%) and shots (15-0) while Argentina is reduced to 10 men after a red card in stoppage time, creating a strong numerical and territorial advantage in extra time.
Spain enters extra time with a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage after Argentina's Enzo Fernández was sent off late in regulation.
Spain enter extra time at 0-0 with a one-player advantage after Enzo Fernández's dismissal, plus 66% possession, 15-0 shots and 1.2-0 xG.
Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 early in extra time with Argentina reduced to ten men after Enzo Fernández’s second yellow.
Spain dominates with 66% possession, 10 shots on target, and 1.2 xG while Argentina has zero shots and is now reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, giving Spain a strong edge entering extra time.
Spain dominate with 15 shots and 1.2 xG to Argentina's zero attempts, and Argentina begin extra time with 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, leaving a shootout as Argentina's main path.
Spain dominates with 66% possession, 15 shots and 1.2 xG, while Argentina is down to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow card in added time.
Spain dominates with 10 shots on target and 66% possession against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernandez sent off), though Argentina's penalty shootout potential keeps them alive.
Scoreless at 94' in extra time with Argentina reduced to ten men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, while Spain dominates with 15 shots to 0 and 1.2 xG, favoring Spain to score or prevail if it reaches penalties.
Spain dominated shots 15-0, shots on target 10-0, expected goals 1.2-0, and Argentina is a man down after Enzo Fernández's red card in added time.
Spain are level at 94' but have a one-player advantage and have dominated 15-0 in shots, 10-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.2-0 xG.
Scoreless at 95' but Spain dominate with 16 shots, 1.44 xG, 67% possession and now face 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, leaving Argentina reliant on Martínez and penalties.
Spain have 67% possession and 11 shots on goal to Argentina's zero, while Argentina are down to 10 men since a red card at 90+3'.
Spain are level at 95' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.
Spain dominates with 67% possession, 11 shots on target, and 1.44 xG while Argentina is reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep Argentina alive.
Spain dominate 0-0 into extra time with 16-0 shots, 1.44-0.00 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though Argentina retain shootout upside.
Spain dominates with a man advantage and 16 shots to Argentina's 0, making extra time and potential penalties heavily tilted toward Spain.
Spain are level at 96' but hold a one-player advantage and have dominated 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 xG.
Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and 1.44 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), who have zero shots and rely on 11 goalkeeper saves entering extra time.
Spain leads 1-0 at 97' with Argentina down to 10 men and zero shots on goal.
Spain lead 1-0 in extra time against 10-man Argentina, who have zero shots and 0.00 xG while Spain dominate with 16 shots and 67% possession.
Spain leads 1-0, has a man advantage after Argentina's red card, and Argentina has recorded zero shots and an expected goals of 0.0 through 97 minutes.
Spain holds a 1-0 lead in extra time and a numerical advantage following Enzo Fernández's red card, heavily favoring their advancement.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 97th minute, hold an 11-0 shots-on-goal edge, and Argentina are down to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow.
Spain leads 1-0 early in extra time with a man advantage after Argentina’s late red card and total shot dominance.
Spain lead 1-0 in extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, dominating possession (67%), shots (16-0), and xG (1.44-0.00).
Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card while Argentina has zero shots on goal.
Spain dominate at 0-0 in extra time (98') with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, 11 shots on target and 1.44 xG versus zero Argentina shots, though a shootout remains a real possibility.
Spain dominates with 11 shots on target and a man advantage after Argentina's red card, while Argentina has yet to register a shot.
Spain has heavily dominated the match statistics and now holds a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.
Spain are level at 98' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.
Spain lead heavily on shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in ET with Argentina down to 10 men after Enzo’s late red.
Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and 11 on target against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernandez's red card, making Spain strong favorites to advance in extra time or penalties.
Spain dominates possession (67%), shots (16-0), and xG (1.44-0) while Argentina is down to 10 men since 90+3', giving Spain a large advantage in extra time or penalties.
Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.
Spain are level at 99' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.
Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, 1.44 xG, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, but Argentina's 11 saves and penalty shootout risk keep their hopes alive.
Spain dominate 0-0 at 100' with 16 shots, 1.44 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's late red card, while Argentina have zero shots and would rely on the shootout.
Spain dominates with 11 shots on goal, 67% possession, and a one-man advantage after Argentina's red card, while Argentina has zero shots.
Spain dominates statistically and has a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.
Spain are level at 100' but have a one-player advantage and overwhelming 16-0 shots, 11-0 shots on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 xG.
Spain dominate possession and shots (11 on target, 1.44 xG) against ten-man Argentina (0 shots, Enzo Fernández sent off) with 20 minutes of extra time remaining.
Scoreless at 101' but Spain dominate (16 shots, 1.43 xG, 68% possession) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though a shootout remains a real possibility.
Argentina is down to 10 men and has yet to record a shot while Spain dominates with 68% possession and 11 shots on target, so Spain is very likely to score in extra time.
Spain dominate 0-0 ET at 101' with 11-0 shots on target, 1.43-0 xG and Argentina down to 10 after Enzo red.
Spain dominates with 68% possession, 11 shots on target, and 1.43 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), though Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep Argentina alive entering the final 19 minutes of extra time.
Spain dominate 0-0 at 102' with 17 shots, 1.43 xG and 68% possession against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, though a shootout remains a real coin-flip risk.
Spain dominates with 68% possession and 11 shots on target while Argentina has been reduced to ten men after a red card in added time, generating zero shots all match.
Spain are level at 102' but hold a one-player advantage and have produced all 17 shots, 11 on target, with 68% possession.
Spain dominate 0-0 ET at 102' with 17-0 shots, 1.43-0 xG and Argentina reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández red.
Spain dominate with 68% possession, 11 shots on target and 1.43 xG while Argentina have zero shots and are down to ten men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow in stoppage time.
Spain dominate 0-0 in extra time (17-0 shots, 1.45 xG) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, but a resilient Argentina defense keeps shootout risk alive.
Spain dominant with 68% possession and 11 shots on target while Argentina is down to 10 men and has zero shots, making an extra-time Spanish goal highly probable.
Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and is playing against 10-man Argentina following Enzo Fernández's red card.
Spain are level at 103' but have a man advantage and lead 17-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 68% possession, and 1.45-0 in xG.
Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in ET while Argentina play a man down after Enzo’s red, raising Spain’s advancement edge.
Spain dominates with a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, holding 68% possession and 11 shots on target to Argentina's zero, though Martinez's 11 saves and potential shootout risk keep Argentina alive.
Spain dominate 0-0 in extra time (xG 1.45-0.00, 18-0 shots) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, but Argentina's goalkeeper has 11 saves and a shootout remains plausible.
Spain dominate with 68% possession, 11 shots on target and a player advantage after Argentina's red card; Argentina have zero shots total.
Spain holds a significant advantage in extra time with an extra man and complete statistical dominance, though the looming penalty shootout keeps Argentina's chances alive.
Spain are level at 104' but have a man advantage, 68% possession, 18-0 shots, and 11-0 shots on target.
Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 68% possession and 11 shots on target to Argentina's zero, making Spanish advancement highly likely.
Spain dominates with 11 shots on target and 68% possession in extra time while Argentina has zero shots, making a home advance highly likely.
Scoreless at 106' but Spain dominate (19-0 shots, xG 1.72-0.00) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, giving Spain a strong edge to score late or otherwise face a coin-flip shootout.
Spain dominates with 68% possession, 19 shots to 0, and xG 1.72 to 0, while Argentina is down to 10 men and has no offensive threat.
Spain are level at 106' but have a one-player advantage and lead 19-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 68%-32% in possession, and 1.72-0 in xG.
Spain dominate with 68% possession, 19 shots, 1.72 xG, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, though Argentina's 11 saves and penalty risk keep their hopes alive.
Spain dominate 0-0 at 107' with 19 shots and 1.72 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), who have zero shots and rely on Martínez's 11 saves, though a shootout remains likely.
Spain has a one-man advantage, 19 shots to 0, and 1.72 xG to 0.00, making them heavy favorites to advance.
Spain has a significant statistical advantage and is playing against 10-man Argentina in extra time.
Spain are level at 107' but have a one-player advantage and lead 19-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.72-0 in xG.
Spain dominate with 67% possession, 19 shots, 1.72 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, but Argentina's 11 saves and Emiliano Martinez keep shootout risk alive.
Spain dominate 0-0 at 108' against 10-man Argentina (red card 90+3') with 19 shots and 1.72 xG to zero, but a likely penalty shootout keeps outcomes close to even.
Spain dominate with an extra man from 90+3′, 19 total shots to 0 and 67% possession, making a late Argentina goal unlikely while Spain should finish or win on penalties.
Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage following Enzo Fernández's red card, increasing their chances of scoring in the remaining extra time.
At 0-0 after 108 minutes, Spain's 11-0 shots-on-target edge and Argentina's 90+3' dismissal favor Spain, though a shootout remains likely.
Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, recording 11 shots on target and 1.72 xG while Argentina have zero shots and zero xG, making Spain strong favorites to either score in the remaining 12 minutes or advance via shootout.
Spain have 19 shots to 0, 67% possession, and Argentina are down to 10 men since 90+3', making a Spanish winner in extra time or penalties far more likely.
Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage in extra time, increasing their likelihood of finding a late winner or prevailing in a shootout.
Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in the 109th minute while Argentina play a man down after Enzo’s late red.
Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 67% possession and 1.72 xG while Argentina have zero shots, making Spain strong favorites to advance.
Still 0-0 at extra-time break but Spain dominate with 11 shots on target and 1.72 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), though a likely shootout keeps Argentina's chances alive.
Argentina is down to 10 men with zero shots and 33% possession, while Spain dominates with 19 shots and 67% possession, but a 0-0 scoreline still carries penalty shootout uncertainty.
Spain are level entering the latter part of extra time but hold a one-player advantage and dominant 19-0 shots, 1.72-0 xG, and 67% possession.
Spain dominate 0-0 ET break with 19-0 shots, 1.72-0 xG and Argentina reduced to 10 men after Enzo second yellow.
Spain dominate 10-man Argentina with 67% possession, 19 shots and 1.72 xG but Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep it 0-0; if penalties arrive Argentina retain shootout edge, slightly offsetting Spain's strong in-play advantage.
Argentina is down to 10 men after a red card, has failed to register a single shot, and Spain has dominated possession and chances, strongly favoring Spain to advance in extra time or penalties.
Spain dominates possession and chances against a 10-man Argentina, but with only 15 minutes left before a potential penalty shootout, the advantage is slightly tempered.
Spain dominate with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 67% possession and 1.72 xG to Argentina's zero, though Emi Martínez's 11 saves and potential shootout keep Argentina alive.
Spain dominates with 1.72 xG and 19 shots versus Argentina's zero shots and 0 xG despite the scoreless extra time.
Spain dominate 0-0 at 112' with 19-0 shots and 1.72-0.00 xG, giving them the better chance to score late, though a likely shootout keeps Argentina live.
Spain dominate with 67% possession, 1.72 xG and Argentina yet to register a shot, but the deadlock at 112 minutes raises shootout risk.
Despite Spain's overwhelming statistical dominance, the match remains scoreless late in extra time, making a penalty shootout highly probable.
Spain's 19-0 shot edge, 11 shots on target and 1.72-0 xG advantage favor them, though the 0-0 extra-time score makes a shootout increasingly likely.
0-0 at ET break with Spain dominating shots, xG and possession while Argentina has five yellows and zero shots.
Spain dominate with 11 shots on target, 1.72 xG and 67% possession while Argentina have zero shots and zero xG, though Martinez's 11 saves and potential shootout keep Argentina alive.
Spain leads 1-0 at 107' with 19 shots and 1.72 xG versus Argentina's 0 shots and 0 xG.
Spain lead 1-0 at 107' in extra time while Argentina have zero shots and 0 xG, leaving only ~13 minutes for an equalizer.
Spain leads 1-0 with total dominance (11 shots on goal to 0, 67% possession) and Argentina has five yellow cards and zero expected goals.
Spain holds a 1-0 lead in the second half of extra time and has completely dominated the match statistically.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 107th minute and have allowed no shots while dominating possession, chances, and territory.
Spain leads 1-0 early in the second half of extra time with total shot and xG dominance while Argentina remains goalless and heavily booked.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 107th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an Argentine equalizer in the remaining time highly unlikely.
Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant stats and Argentina failing to register shots, making a Spanish advance highly likely.
Spain leads 1-0 at 110 minutes with dominant stats and Argentina has zero shots on goal.
Spain lead 1-0 at 110' after Ferran Torres's goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time for an equalizer.
Spain leads 1-0 with 10 minutes remaining in extra time; Argentina has 0 shots on goal and 5 yellow cards.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 110th minute after dominating 20-0 in shots and 12-0 on target, leaving Argentina little time to equalize.
Spain lead 1-0 at 110' of extra time after Ferran Torres' goal, with Argentina having produced zero shots and zero xG all match, making a late equalizer highly unlikely.
Spain lead 1-0 at 111' after Ferran Torres's extra-time goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time to equalize.
Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant statistics and Argentina yet to register a shot on target.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 111th minute and have dominated 20-0 in shots, 12-0 on target, with Argentina yet to produce a shot.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 111th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an equalizer in the remaining time highly unlikely.
Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant possession and xG, while Argentina has zero shots on target and five yellow cards, making a comeback unlikely.
Spain leads 1-0 deep into extra time with dominant shot and xG figures while Argentina has zero shots on target and five yellow cards.
Spain holds a 1-0 lead late in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 112th minute after outshooting Argentina 20-0, with 67% possession and no red cards shown.
Spain lead 1-0 at 112' of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an equalizer in the remaining ~8 minutes highly unlikely.
Spain lead 1-0 at 113' after Ferran Torres' extra-time goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0.0 xG, leaving minimal time for an equalizer.
Spain leads 1-0 in the 113th minute with total dominance; Argentina has zero shots and zero expected goals, making an equalizer extremely unlikely.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 113th minute after allowing Argentina no shots while producing 20 shots and 1.94 xG.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 113th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG, making a late equalizer highly unlikely.
Spain leads 2-0 at minute 114 with dominant stats and Argentina having zero shots on goal.
Spain lead 2-0 at 114' of extra time with Argentina registering zero shots, making a comeback in the remaining minutes virtually impossible.
Spain leads 2-0 with 6 minutes plus stoppage time remaining, Argentina has zero shots and six yellow cards.
Spain holds a commanding 2-0 lead in the 114th minute of extra time, making their advancement almost certain.
Spain lead 2-0 after 114 minutes and have allowed Argentina no shots, leaving only a few minutes for a two-goal comeback.
Spain lead 2-0 deep in extra time with dominant stats and Argentina generating zero shots, leaving minimal time for a comeback.
Spain leads 2-0 in the 114th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG, leaving almost no time to mount a comeback.
Spain leads 1-0 in the 115th minute of extra time with dominant possession and xG, leaving minimal time for Argentina to equalize or win.
Spain leads 1-0 at 115' with dominant xG and possession while Argentina has zero shots on target.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 115th minute after Ferran Torres's goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time to equalize.
Spain holds a 1-0 lead with only five minutes remaining in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.
Spain lead 1-0 at 115 minutes and have allowed Argentina no shots while dominating possession, chances, and territory.
Spain leads 1-0 deep in the second half of extra time with total statistical dominance and Argentina yet to register a shot.
Spain leads 1-0 at minute 117 with dominant stats and Argentina having zero shots on goal.
Spain leads 1-0 with minutes left in extra time, Argentina has zero shots on goal and six yellow cards, making a late equalizer extremely unlikely.
Spain holds a 1-0 lead late in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 117th minute after allowing Argentina no shots, leaving very little time for an equalizer and shootout chance.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 117th minute of extra time with Argentina yet to register a shot on target, making a late comeback highly unlikely.
Spain leads 1-0 in the 118th minute with Argentina yet to register a shot on target and less than 3 minutes remaining.
Spain lead 1-0 in the 118th minute after allowing no shots and just 0.03 xG while controlling 66% possession.
Spain leads 1-0 deep in extra time at 118' with total shot and xG dominance, leaving Argentina almost no time to equalize.
Spain leads 1-0 at 118' of extra time with Argentina yet to register a shot on target, making a Spanish advancement near-certain.
Spain leads 1-0 at minute 119 with dominant stats and Argentina has zero shots on goal.
Spain leads 1-0 deep in extra time with dominant shots (20-0) and expected goals (1.94-0.04); Argentina has no shots on target and only seconds remain.
Spain leads 1-0 in the 119th minute of extra time and Argentina has failed to register a single shot all match.