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World Cup Final · Historical Archive

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FINAL

Final AI forecast archive : Spain versus Argentina

ESP
Full-time
1–0
FT · latest state
ARG
Final result verifiedLast forecast 119' · result FTSource: the_stats_api

Advancement probability

Last forecast · 119' · 7/8 agents
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Every probability change is paired with the model's persisted English explanation.

FORECAST ARCHIVE155 messages
qwen3.7-max135' · Initial forecast

Spain dominates with 66% possession and 10 shots on goal while Argentina plays extra time with ten men after Enzo Fernández's red card.

Spain advance82%Argentina advance18%
anthropic/claude-fable-5135' · Initial forecast

Scoreless deep into extra time with Spain dominating (15-0 shots, xG 1.12-0) against ten-man Argentina, but a penalty shootout is now highly likely, tempering Spain's edge.

Spain advance62%Argentina advance38%
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro135' · Initial forecast

Spain dominates possession and shots while Argentina is reduced to ten men after a red card, heavily tilting advancement probability.

Spain advance85%Argentina advance15%
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview135' · Initial forecast

With the match at 135 minutes and tied 0-0, a penalty shootout is imminent where probabilities are nearly even despite Spain's statistical dominance and Argentina's red card.

Spain advance52%Argentina advance48%
openai/gpt-5.6-sol135' · Initial forecast

Spain have dominated 10-0 in shots on target and face ten-man Argentina, but the 0-0 score deep in extra time leaves a substantial shootout chance.

Spain advance65%Argentina advance35%
x-ai/grok-4.5135' · Initial forecast

0-0 at 135' ET end with Argentina down a man after Enzo red; Spain dominate shots/xG/possession but shootout looms as equalizer.

Spain advance62%Argentina advance38%
z-ai/glm-5.2135' · Initial forecast

Spain has dominated with 10 shots on target and 66% possession against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernandez sent off), but with only 5 minutes of extra time remaining and no goal scored, penalties remain likely despite Spain's advantage.

Spain advance64%Argentina advance36%
anthropic/claude-fable-591' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 15 shots and 1.2 xG to Argentina's zero while Argentina start extra time with 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow at 90+3'.

Spain advance62% →78%+16ppArgentina advance38% →22%-16pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro91' · Adjusted

Spain dominates possession (66%) and shots (15-0) while Argentina is reduced to 10 men after a red card in stoppage time, creating a strong numerical and territorial advantage in extra time.

Spain advance85% →82%-3ppArgentina advance15% →18%+3pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview91' · Adjusted

Spain enters extra time with a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage after Argentina's Enzo Fernández was sent off late in regulation.

Spain advance52% →75%+23ppArgentina advance48% →25%-23pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol91' · Adjusted

Spain enter extra time at 0-0 with a one-player advantage after Enzo Fernández's dismissal, plus 66% possession, 15-0 shots and 1.2-0 xG.

Spain advance65% →72%+7ppArgentina advance35% →28%-7pp
x-ai/grok-4.591' · Adjusted

Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 early in extra time with Argentina reduced to ten men after Enzo Fernández’s second yellow.

Spain advance62% →78%+16ppArgentina advance38% →22%-16pp
z-ai/glm-5.291' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 66% possession, 10 shots on target, and 1.2 xG while Argentina has zero shots and is now reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, giving Spain a strong edge entering extra time.

Spain advance64% →72%+8ppArgentina advance36% →28%-8pp
anthropic/claude-fable-592' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 15 shots and 1.2 xG to Argentina's zero attempts, and Argentina begin extra time with 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, leaving a shootout as Argentina's main path.

Spain advance78% →76%-2ppArgentina advance22% →24%+2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro92' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 66% possession, 15 shots and 1.2 xG, while Argentina is down to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow card in added time.

Spain advance82% →92%+10ppArgentina advance18% →8%-10pp
z-ai/glm-5.292' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 10 shots on target and 66% possession against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernandez sent off), though Argentina's penalty shootout potential keeps them alive.

Spain advance72% →76%+4ppArgentina advance28% →24%-4pp
anthropic/claude-fable-594' · Adjusted

Scoreless at 94' in extra time with Argentina reduced to ten men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, while Spain dominates with 15 shots to 0 and 1.2 xG, favoring Spain to score or prevail if it reaches penalties.

Spain advance76% →74%-2ppArgentina advance24% →26%+2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro94' · Adjusted

Spain dominated shots 15-0, shots on target 10-0, expected goals 1.2-0, and Argentina is a man down after Enzo Fernández's red card in added time.

Spain advance92% →82%-10ppArgentina advance8% →18%+10pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol94' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 94' but have a one-player advantage and have dominated 15-0 in shots, 10-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.2-0 xG.

Spain advance72% →77%+5ppArgentina advance28% →23%-5pp
anthropic/claude-fable-595' · Adjusted

Scoreless at 95' but Spain dominate with 16 shots, 1.44 xG, 67% possession and now face 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, leaving Argentina reliant on Martínez and penalties.

Spain advance74% →78%+4ppArgentina advance26% →22%-4pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro95' · Adjusted

Spain have 67% possession and 11 shots on goal to Argentina's zero, while Argentina are down to 10 men since a red card at 90+3'.

Spain advance82% →80%-2ppArgentina advance18% →20%+2pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol95' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 95' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.

Spain advance77% →70%-7ppArgentina advance23% →30%+7pp
z-ai/glm-5.295' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 67% possession, 11 shots on target, and 1.44 xG while Argentina is reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep Argentina alive.

Spain advance76% →78%+2ppArgentina advance24% →22%-2pp
anthropic/claude-fable-596' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 into extra time with 16-0 shots, 1.44-0.00 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though Argentina retain shootout upside.

Spain advance78% →79%+1ppArgentina advance22% →21%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro96' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with a man advantage and 16 shots to Argentina's 0, making extra time and potential penalties heavily tilted toward Spain.

Spain advance80% →88%+8ppArgentina advance20% →12%-8pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol96' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 96' but hold a one-player advantage and have dominated 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 xG.

Spain advance70% →73%+3ppArgentina advance30% →27%-3pp
z-ai/glm-5.296' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and 1.44 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), who have zero shots and rely on 11 goalkeeper saves entering extra time.

Spain advance78% →80%+2ppArgentina advance22% →20%-2pp
qwen3.7-max97' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at 97' with Argentina down to 10 men and zero shots on goal.

Spain advance82% →94%+12ppArgentina advance18% →6%-12pp
anthropic/claude-fable-597' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in extra time against 10-man Argentina, who have zero shots and 0.00 xG while Spain dominate with 16 shots and 67% possession.

Spain advance79% →95%+16ppArgentina advance21% →5%-16pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro97' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0, has a man advantage after Argentina's red card, and Argentina has recorded zero shots and an expected goals of 0.0 through 97 minutes.

Spain advance88% →97%+9ppArgentina advance12% →3%-9pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview97' · Adjusted

Spain holds a 1-0 lead in extra time and a numerical advantage following Enzo Fernández's red card, heavily favoring their advancement.

Spain advance75% →92%+17ppArgentina advance25% →8%-17pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol97' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 97th minute, hold an 11-0 shots-on-goal edge, and Argentina are down to 10 men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow.

Spain advance73% →98%+25ppArgentina advance27% →2%-25pp
x-ai/grok-4.597' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 early in extra time with a man advantage after Argentina’s late red card and total shot dominance.

Spain advance78% →93%+15ppArgentina advance22% →7%-15pp
z-ai/glm-5.297' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, dominating possession (67%), shots (16-0), and xG (1.44-0.00).

Spain advance80% →93%+13ppArgentina advance20% →7%-13pp
qwen3.7-max98' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card while Argentina has zero shots on goal.

Spain advance94% →82%-12ppArgentina advance6% →18%+12pp
anthropic/claude-fable-598' · Adjusted

Spain dominate at 0-0 in extra time (98') with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, 11 shots on target and 1.44 xG versus zero Argentina shots, though a shootout remains a real possibility.

Spain advance95% →72%-23ppArgentina advance5% →28%+23pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro98' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 11 shots on target and a man advantage after Argentina's red card, while Argentina has yet to register a shot.

Spain advance97% →85%-12ppArgentina advance3% →15%+12pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview98' · Adjusted

Spain has heavily dominated the match statistics and now holds a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.

Spain advance92% →75%-17ppArgentina advance8% →25%+17pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol98' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 98' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.

Spain advance98% →77%-21ppArgentina advance2% →23%+21pp
x-ai/grok-4.598' · Adjusted

Spain lead heavily on shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in ET with Argentina down to 10 men after Enzo’s late red.

Spain advance93% →79%-14ppArgentina advance7% →21%+14pp
z-ai/glm-5.298' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, and 11 on target against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernandez's red card, making Spain strong favorites to advance in extra time or penalties.

Spain advance93% →78%-15ppArgentina advance7% →22%+15pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro99' · Adjusted

Spain dominates possession (67%), shots (16-0), and xG (1.44-0) while Argentina is down to 10 men since 90+3', giving Spain a large advantage in extra time or penalties.

Spain advance85% →86%+1ppArgentina advance15% →14%-1pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview99' · Adjusted

Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.

Spain advance75% →78%+3ppArgentina advance25% →22%-3pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol99' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 99' but have a one-player advantage and lead 16-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 in xG.

Spain advance77% →73%-4ppArgentina advance23% →27%+4pp
z-ai/glm-5.299' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 67% possession, 16 shots, 1.44 xG, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, but Argentina's 11 saves and penalty shootout risk keep their hopes alive.

Spain advance78% →73%-5ppArgentina advance22% →27%+5pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5100' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 at 100' with 16 shots, 1.44 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's late red card, while Argentina have zero shots and would rely on the shootout.

Spain advance72% →74%+2ppArgentina advance28% →26%-2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro100' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 11 shots on goal, 67% possession, and a one-man advantage after Argentina's red card, while Argentina has zero shots.

Spain advance86% →85%-1ppArgentina advance14% →15%+1pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview100' · Adjusted

Spain dominates statistically and has a man advantage in extra time following Enzo Fernández's red card.

Spain advance78% →75%-3ppArgentina advance22% →25%+3pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol100' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 100' but have a one-player advantage and overwhelming 16-0 shots, 11-0 shots on target, 67% possession, and 1.44-0 xG.

Spain advance73% →72%-1ppArgentina advance27% →28%+1pp
z-ai/glm-5.2100' · Adjusted

Spain dominate possession and shots (11 on target, 1.44 xG) against ten-man Argentina (0 shots, Enzo Fernández sent off) with 20 minutes of extra time remaining.

Spain advance73% →83%+10ppArgentina advance27% →17%-10pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5101' · Adjusted

Scoreless at 101' but Spain dominate (16 shots, 1.43 xG, 68% possession) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's second yellow, though a shootout remains a real possibility.

Spain advance74% →72%-2ppArgentina advance26% →28%+2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro101' · Adjusted

Argentina is down to 10 men and has yet to record a shot while Spain dominates with 68% possession and 11 shots on target, so Spain is very likely to score in extra time.

Spain advance85% →92%+7ppArgentina advance15% →8%-7pp
x-ai/grok-4.5101' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 ET at 101' with 11-0 shots on target, 1.43-0 xG and Argentina down to 10 after Enzo red.

Spain advance79% →86%+7ppArgentina advance21% →14%-7pp
z-ai/glm-5.2101' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 68% possession, 11 shots on target, and 1.43 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), though Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep Argentina alive entering the final 19 minutes of extra time.

Spain advance83% →72%-11ppArgentina advance17% →28%+11pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5102' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 at 102' with 17 shots, 1.43 xG and 68% possession against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, though a shootout remains a real coin-flip risk.

Spain advance72% →73%+1ppArgentina advance28% →27%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro102' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 68% possession and 11 shots on target while Argentina has been reduced to ten men after a red card in added time, generating zero shots all match.

Spain advance92% →88%-4ppArgentina advance8% →12%+4pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol102' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 102' but hold a one-player advantage and have produced all 17 shots, 11 on target, with 68% possession.

Spain advance72% →67%-5ppArgentina advance28% →33%+5pp
x-ai/grok-4.5102' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 ET at 102' with 17-0 shots, 1.43-0 xG and Argentina reduced to 10 men after Enzo Fernández red.

Spain advance86% →82%-4ppArgentina advance14% →18%+4pp
z-ai/glm-5.2102' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 68% possession, 11 shots on target and 1.43 xG while Argentina have zero shots and are down to ten men after Enzo Fernández's second yellow in stoppage time.

Spain advance72% →73%+1ppArgentina advance28% →27%-1pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5103' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 in extra time (17-0 shots, 1.45 xG) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, but a resilient Argentina defense keeps shootout risk alive.

Spain advance73% →68%-5ppArgentina advance27% →32%+5pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro103' · Adjusted

Spain dominant with 68% possession and 11 shots on target while Argentina is down to 10 men and has zero shots, making an extra-time Spanish goal highly probable.

Spain advance88% →92%+4ppArgentina advance12% →8%-4pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview103' · Adjusted

Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and is playing against 10-man Argentina following Enzo Fernández's red card.

Spain advance75% →70%-5ppArgentina advance25% →30%+5pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol103' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 103' but have a man advantage and lead 17-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 68% possession, and 1.45-0 in xG.

Spain advance67% →77%+10ppArgentina advance33% →23%-10pp
x-ai/grok-4.5103' · Adjusted

Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in ET while Argentina play a man down after Enzo’s red, raising Spain’s advancement edge.

Spain advance82% →78%-4ppArgentina advance18% →22%+4pp
z-ai/glm-5.2103' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, holding 68% possession and 11 shots on target to Argentina's zero, though Martinez's 11 saves and potential shootout risk keep Argentina alive.

Spain advance73% →75%+2ppArgentina advance27% →25%-2pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5104' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 in extra time (xG 1.45-0.00, 18-0 shots) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, but Argentina's goalkeeper has 11 saves and a shootout remains plausible.

Spain advance68% →72%+4ppArgentina advance32% →28%-4pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro104' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 68% possession, 11 shots on target and a player advantage after Argentina's red card; Argentina have zero shots total.

Spain advance92% →90%-2ppArgentina advance8% →10%+2pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview104' · Adjusted

Spain holds a significant advantage in extra time with an extra man and complete statistical dominance, though the looming penalty shootout keeps Argentina's chances alive.

Spain advance70% →65%-5ppArgentina advance30% →35%+5pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol104' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 104' but have a man advantage, 68% possession, 18-0 shots, and 11-0 shots on target.

Spain advance77% →70%-7ppArgentina advance23% →30%+7pp
z-ai/glm-5.2104' · Adjusted

Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 68% possession and 11 shots on target to Argentina's zero, making Spanish advancement highly likely.

Spain advance75% →84%+9ppArgentina advance25% →16%-9pp
agnes-2.0-flash106' · Initial forecast

Spain dominates with 11 shots on target and 68% possession in extra time while Argentina has zero shots, making a home advance highly likely.

Spain advance78%Argentina advance22%
anthropic/claude-fable-5106' · Adjusted

Scoreless at 106' but Spain dominate (19-0 shots, xG 1.72-0.00) against 10-man Argentina after Enzo Fernández's red card, giving Spain a strong edge to score late or otherwise face a coin-flip shootout.

Spain advance72% →68%-4ppArgentina advance28% →32%+4pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro106' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 68% possession, 19 shots to 0, and xG 1.72 to 0, while Argentina is down to 10 men and has no offensive threat.

Spain advance90% →88%-2ppArgentina advance10% →12%+2pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol106' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 106' but have a one-player advantage and lead 19-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 68%-32% in possession, and 1.72-0 in xG.

Spain advance70% →65%-5ppArgentina advance30% →35%+5pp
z-ai/glm-5.2106' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 68% possession, 19 shots, 1.72 xG, and a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, though Argentina's 11 saves and penalty risk keep their hopes alive.

Spain advance84% →72%-12ppArgentina advance16% →28%+12pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5107' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 at 107' with 19 shots and 1.72 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), who have zero shots and rely on Martínez's 11 saves, though a shootout remains likely.

Spain advance68% →71%+3ppArgentina advance32% →29%-3pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro107' · Adjusted

Spain has a one-man advantage, 19 shots to 0, and 1.72 xG to 0.00, making them heavy favorites to advance.

Spain advance88% →92%+4ppArgentina advance12% →8%-4pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview107' · Adjusted

Spain has a significant statistical advantage and is playing against 10-man Argentina in extra time.

Spain advance65% →70%+5ppArgentina advance35% →30%-5pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol107' · Adjusted

Spain are level at 107' but have a one-player advantage and lead 19-0 in shots, 11-0 on target, 67% possession, and 1.72-0 in xG.

Spain advance65% →63%-2ppArgentina advance35% →37%+2pp
z-ai/glm-5.2107' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 67% possession, 19 shots, 1.72 xG and a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, but Argentina's 11 saves and Emiliano Martinez keep shootout risk alive.

Spain advance72% →65%-7ppArgentina advance28% →35%+7pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5108' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 at 108' against 10-man Argentina (red card 90+3') with 19 shots and 1.72 xG to zero, but a likely penalty shootout keeps outcomes close to even.

Spain advance71% →66%-5ppArgentina advance29% →34%+5pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro108' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with an extra man from 90+3′, 19 total shots to 0 and 67% possession, making a late Argentina goal unlikely while Spain should finish or win on penalties.

Spain advance92% →85%-7ppArgentina advance8% →15%+7pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview108' · Adjusted

Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage following Enzo Fernández's red card, increasing their chances of scoring in the remaining extra time.

Spain advance70% →65%-5ppArgentina advance30% →35%+5pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol108' · Adjusted

At 0-0 after 108 minutes, Spain's 11-0 shots-on-target edge and Argentina's 90+3' dismissal favor Spain, though a shootout remains likely.

Spain advance63% →64%+1ppArgentina advance37% →36%-1pp
z-ai/glm-5.2108' · Adjusted

Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernandez's red card, recording 11 shots on target and 1.72 xG while Argentina have zero shots and zero xG, making Spain strong favorites to either score in the remaining 12 minutes or advance via shootout.

Spain advance65% →70%+5ppArgentina advance35% →30%-5pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro109' · Adjusted

Spain have 19 shots to 0, 67% possession, and Argentina are down to 10 men since 90+3', making a Spanish winner in extra time or penalties far more likely.

Spain advance85% →82%-3ppArgentina advance15% →18%+3pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview109' · Adjusted

Spain holds a significant statistical advantage and a man advantage in extra time, increasing their likelihood of finding a late winner or prevailing in a shootout.

Spain advance65% →68%+3ppArgentina advance35% →32%-3pp
x-ai/grok-4.5109' · Adjusted

Spain dominate shots, xG and possession at 0-0 in the 109th minute while Argentina play a man down after Enzo’s late red.

Spain advance78% →81%+3ppArgentina advance22% →19%-3pp
z-ai/glm-5.2109' · Adjusted

Spain dominate extra time with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 67% possession and 1.72 xG while Argentina have zero shots, making Spain strong favorites to advance.

Spain advance70% →72%+2ppArgentina advance30% →28%-2pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5110' · Adjusted

Still 0-0 at extra-time break but Spain dominate with 11 shots on target and 1.72 xG against 10-man Argentina (Enzo Fernández sent off), though a likely shootout keeps Argentina's chances alive.

Spain advance66% →68%+2ppArgentina advance34% →32%-2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro110' · Adjusted

Argentina is down to 10 men with zero shots and 33% possession, while Spain dominates with 19 shots and 67% possession, but a 0-0 scoreline still carries penalty shootout uncertainty.

Spain advance82% →85%+3ppArgentina advance18% →15%-3pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol110' · Adjusted

Spain are level entering the latter part of extra time but hold a one-player advantage and dominant 19-0 shots, 1.72-0 xG, and 67% possession.

Spain advance64% →68%+4ppArgentina advance36% →32%-4pp
x-ai/grok-4.5110' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 ET break with 19-0 shots, 1.72-0 xG and Argentina reduced to 10 men after Enzo second yellow.

Spain advance81% →78%-3ppArgentina advance19% →22%+3pp
z-ai/glm-5.2110' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 10-man Argentina with 67% possession, 19 shots and 1.72 xG but Emiliano Martínez's 11 saves keep it 0-0; if penalties arrive Argentina retain shootout edge, slightly offsetting Spain's strong in-play advantage.

Spain advance72% →62%-10ppArgentina advance28% →38%+10pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro111' · Adjusted

Argentina is down to 10 men after a red card, has failed to register a single shot, and Spain has dominated possession and chances, strongly favoring Spain to advance in extra time or penalties.

Spain advance85% →82%-3ppArgentina advance15% →18%+3pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview111' · Adjusted

Spain dominates possession and chances against a 10-man Argentina, but with only 15 minutes left before a potential penalty shootout, the advantage is slightly tempered.

Spain advance68% →65%-3ppArgentina advance32% →35%+3pp
z-ai/glm-5.2111' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with a man advantage after Enzo Fernández's red card, holding 67% possession and 1.72 xG to Argentina's zero, though Emi Martínez's 11 saves and potential shootout keep Argentina alive.

Spain advance62% →75%+13ppArgentina advance38% →25%-13pp
qwen3.7-max112' · Adjusted

Spain dominates with 1.72 xG and 19 shots versus Argentina's zero shots and 0 xG despite the scoreless extra time.

Spain advance82% →78%-4ppArgentina advance18% →22%+4pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5112' · Adjusted

Spain dominate 0-0 at 112' with 19-0 shots and 1.72-0.00 xG, giving them the better chance to score late, though a likely shootout keeps Argentina live.

Spain advance68% →63%-5ppArgentina advance32% →37%+5pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro112' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 67% possession, 1.72 xG and Argentina yet to register a shot, but the deadlock at 112 minutes raises shootout risk.

Spain advance82% →72%-10ppArgentina advance18% →28%+10pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview112' · Adjusted

Despite Spain's overwhelming statistical dominance, the match remains scoreless late in extra time, making a penalty shootout highly probable.

Spain advance65% →55%-10ppArgentina advance35% →45%+10pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol112' · Adjusted

Spain's 19-0 shot edge, 11 shots on target and 1.72-0 xG advantage favor them, though the 0-0 extra-time score makes a shootout increasingly likely.

Spain advance68% →60%-8ppArgentina advance32% →40%+8pp
x-ai/grok-4.5112' · Adjusted

0-0 at ET break with Spain dominating shots, xG and possession while Argentina has five yellows and zero shots.

Spain advance78% →72%-6ppArgentina advance22% →28%+6pp
z-ai/glm-5.2112' · Adjusted

Spain dominate with 11 shots on target, 1.72 xG and 67% possession while Argentina have zero shots and zero xG, though Martinez's 11 saves and potential shootout keep Argentina alive.

Spain advance75% →68%-7ppArgentina advance25% →32%+7pp
qwen3.7-max107' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at 107' with 19 shots and 1.72 xG versus Argentina's 0 shots and 0 xG.

Spain advance78% →94%+16ppArgentina advance22% →6%-16pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5107' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 107' in extra time while Argentina have zero shots and 0 xG, leaving only ~13 minutes for an equalizer.

Spain advance63% →95%+32ppArgentina advance37% →5%-32pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro107' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 with total dominance (11 shots on goal to 0, 67% possession) and Argentina has five yellow cards and zero expected goals.

Spain advance72% →95%+23ppArgentina advance28% →5%-23pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview107' · Adjusted

Spain holds a 1-0 lead in the second half of extra time and has completely dominated the match statistically.

Spain advance55% →92%+37ppArgentina advance45% →8%-37pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol107' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 107th minute and have allowed no shots while dominating possession, chances, and territory.

Spain advance60% →99%+39ppArgentina advance40% →2%-38pp
x-ai/grok-4.5107' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 early in the second half of extra time with total shot and xG dominance while Argentina remains goalless and heavily booked.

Spain advance72% →93%+21ppArgentina advance28% →7%-21pp
z-ai/glm-5.2107' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 107th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an Argentine equalizer in the remaining time highly unlikely.

Spain advance68% →93%+25ppArgentina advance32% →7%-25pp
agnes-2.0-flash110' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant stats and Argentina failing to register shots, making a Spanish advance highly likely.

Spain advance78% →92%+14ppArgentina advance22% →8%-14pp
qwen3.7-max110' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at 110 minutes with dominant stats and Argentina has zero shots on goal.

Spain advance94% →97%+3ppArgentina advance6% →3%-3pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5110' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 110' after Ferran Torres's goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time for an equalizer.

Spain advance95% →96%+1ppArgentina advance5% →4%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro110' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 with 10 minutes remaining in extra time; Argentina has 0 shots on goal and 5 yellow cards.

Spain advance95% →96%+1ppArgentina advance5% →4%-1pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol110' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 110th minute after dominating 20-0 in shots and 12-0 on target, leaving Argentina little time to equalize.

Spain advance99% →97%-2ppArgentina advance2% →3%+2pp
z-ai/glm-5.2110' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 110' of extra time after Ferran Torres' goal, with Argentina having produced zero shots and zero xG all match, making a late equalizer highly unlikely.

Spain advance93% →92%-1ppArgentina advance7% →8%+1pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5111' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 111' after Ferran Torres's extra-time goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time to equalize.

Spain advance96% →97%+1ppArgentina advance4% →3%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro111' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant statistics and Argentina yet to register a shot on target.

Spain advance96% →98%+2ppArgentina advance4% →2%-2pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol111' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 111th minute and have dominated 20-0 in shots, 12-0 on target, with Argentina yet to produce a shot.

Spain advance97% →98%+1ppArgentina advance3% →2%-1pp
z-ai/glm-5.2111' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 111th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an equalizer in the remaining time highly unlikely.

Spain advance92% →97%+5ppArgentina advance8% →3%-5pp
agnes-2.0-flash112' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in extra time with dominant possession and xG, while Argentina has zero shots on target and five yellow cards, making a comeback unlikely.

Spain advance92% →82%-10ppArgentina advance8% →18%+10pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro112' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 deep into extra time with dominant shot and xG figures while Argentina has zero shots on target and five yellow cards.

Spain advance98% →97%-1ppArgentina advance2% →3%+1pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview112' · Adjusted

Spain holds a 1-0 lead late in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.

Spain advance92% →95%+3ppArgentina advance8% →5%-3pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol112' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 112th minute after outshooting Argentina 20-0, with 67% possession and no red cards shown.

Spain advance98% →98%0ppArgentina advance2% →2%+0pp
z-ai/glm-5.2112' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 112' of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG all match, making an equalizer in the remaining ~8 minutes highly unlikely.

Spain advance97% →93%-4ppArgentina advance3% →7%+4pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5113' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 113' after Ferran Torres' extra-time goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0.0 xG, leaving minimal time for an equalizer.

Spain advance97% →96%-1ppArgentina advance3% →4%+1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro113' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in the 113th minute with total dominance; Argentina has zero shots and zero expected goals, making an equalizer extremely unlikely.

Spain advance97% →98%+1ppArgentina advance3% →2%-1pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol113' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 113th minute after allowing Argentina no shots while producing 20 shots and 1.94 xG.

Spain advance98% →98%+0ppArgentina advance2% →2%0pp
z-ai/glm-5.2113' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 113th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG, making a late equalizer highly unlikely.

Spain advance93% →95%+2ppArgentina advance7% →5%-2pp
qwen3.7-max114' · Adjusted

Spain leads 2-0 at minute 114 with dominant stats and Argentina having zero shots on goal.

Spain advance97% →99%+2ppArgentina advance3% →1%-2pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5114' · Adjusted

Spain lead 2-0 at 114' of extra time with Argentina registering zero shots, making a comeback in the remaining minutes virtually impossible.

Spain advance96% →100%+4ppArgentina advance4% →0%-4pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro114' · Adjusted

Spain leads 2-0 with 6 minutes plus stoppage time remaining, Argentina has zero shots and six yellow cards.

Spain advance98% →99%+1ppArgentina advance2% →1%-1pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview114' · Adjusted

Spain holds a commanding 2-0 lead in the 114th minute of extra time, making their advancement almost certain.

Spain advance95% →100%+5ppArgentina advance5% →0%-5pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol114' · Adjusted

Spain lead 2-0 after 114 minutes and have allowed Argentina no shots, leaving only a few minutes for a two-goal comeback.

Spain advance98% →100%+2ppArgentina advance2% →0%-2pp
x-ai/grok-4.5114' · Adjusted

Spain lead 2-0 deep in extra time with dominant stats and Argentina generating zero shots, leaving minimal time for a comeback.

Spain advance93% →97%+4ppArgentina advance7% →3%-4pp
z-ai/glm-5.2114' · Adjusted

Spain leads 2-0 in the 114th minute of extra time with Argentina recording zero shots and zero xG, leaving almost no time to mount a comeback.

Spain advance95% →99%+4ppArgentina advance5% →1%-4pp
agnes-2.0-flash115' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in the 115th minute of extra time with dominant possession and xG, leaving minimal time for Argentina to equalize or win.

Spain advance82% →92%+10ppArgentina advance18% →8%-10pp
qwen3.7-max115' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at 115' with dominant xG and possession while Argentina has zero shots on target.

Spain advance99% →97%-2ppArgentina advance1% →3%+2pp
anthropic/claude-fable-5115' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 115th minute after Ferran Torres's goal, with Argentina registering zero shots and 0 xG, leaving little time to equalize.

Spain advance100% →97%-3ppArgentina advance0% →3%+3pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview115' · Adjusted

Spain holds a 1-0 lead with only five minutes remaining in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.

Spain advance100% →96%-4ppArgentina advance0% →4%+4pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol115' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 at 115 minutes and have allowed Argentina no shots while dominating possession, chances, and territory.

Spain advance100% →99%-1ppArgentina advance0% →1%+1pp
x-ai/grok-4.5115' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 deep in the second half of extra time with total statistical dominance and Argentina yet to register a shot.

Spain advance97% →93%-4ppArgentina advance3% →7%+4pp
qwen3.7-max117' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at minute 117 with dominant stats and Argentina having zero shots on goal.

Spain advance97% →98%+1ppArgentina advance3% →2%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro117' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 with minutes left in extra time, Argentina has zero shots on goal and six yellow cards, making a late equalizer extremely unlikely.

Spain advance99% →98%-1ppArgentina advance1% →2%+1pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview117' · Adjusted

Spain holds a 1-0 lead late in extra time and has completely dominated the match statistics.

Spain advance96% →98%+2ppArgentina advance4% →2%-2pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol117' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 117th minute after allowing Argentina no shots, leaving very little time for an equalizer and shootout chance.

Spain advance99% →99%+0ppArgentina advance1% →1%
z-ai/glm-5.2117' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 117th minute of extra time with Argentina yet to register a shot on target, making a late comeback highly unlikely.

Spain advance99% →97%-2ppArgentina advance1% →3%+2pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro118' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in the 118th minute with Argentina yet to register a shot on target and less than 3 minutes remaining.

Spain advance98% →96%-2ppArgentina advance2% →4%+2pp
openai/gpt-5.6-sol118' · Adjusted

Spain lead 1-0 in the 118th minute after allowing no shots and just 0.03 xG while controlling 66% possession.

Spain advance99% →100%+0ppArgentina advance1% →1%0pp
x-ai/grok-4.5118' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 deep in extra time at 118' with total shot and xG dominance, leaving Argentina almost no time to equalize.

Spain advance93% →97%+4ppArgentina advance7% →3%-4pp
z-ai/glm-5.2118' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at 118' of extra time with Argentina yet to register a shot on target, making a Spanish advancement near-certain.

Spain advance97% →99%+2ppArgentina advance3% →1%-2pp
qwen3.7-max119' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 at minute 119 with dominant stats and Argentina has zero shots on goal.

Spain advance98% →99%+1ppArgentina advance2% →1%-1pp
deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro119' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 deep in extra time with dominant shots (20-0) and expected goals (1.94-0.04); Argentina has no shots on target and only seconds remain.

Spain advance96% →100%+4ppArgentina advance4% →0%-4pp
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview119' · Adjusted

Spain leads 1-0 in the 119th minute of extra time and Argentina has failed to register a single shot all match.

Spain advance98% →99%+1ppArgentina advance2% →1%-1pp
Match event log

What moved the forecasts

2 detailed events
90+3'Argentina red cardEnzo Fernández · Yellow Red CardScore 0–0
106'Spain goalFerran Torres · GoalScore 1–0